Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is facing an unprecedented challenge. With nearly 11 million inhabitants and located on the island of Java, the city is sinking due to a combination of climate change, overpopulation, and decades of unregulated groundwater extraction. Projections suggest that by 2050, Jakarta could be largely underwater, forcing the Indonesian government to accelerate the relocation of its capital to a new city, Nusantara, on the island of Borneo.
Jakarta’s battle against the rising sea
Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous nation with 275 million people across more than 17,500 islands, is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Already, small islets have disappeared, and ecosystems are collapsing under the pressure of encroaching seawater.
Jakarta illustrates this crisis vividly:
- Around 40% of the city is already below sea level.
- The northern part of Jakarta has sunk by 2.5 meters in the past decade, particularly along the Java Sea.
- The weight of dense infrastructure and uncontrolled groundwater pumping accelerates the soil’s subsidence.
Experts have long warned of the looming disaster. “People dig deeper and deeper, the ground collapses,” explained Fook Chuan Eng, a sanitation specialist with the World Bank. Even U.S. President Joe Biden, in July 2021, highlighted Indonesia’s plight, predicting that Jakarta might be forced underwater within a decade.
Nusantara: a new capital in the forest
Faced with this crisis, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced in 2019 the construction of a new capital city: Nusantara. Officially inaugurated on 17 August 2024, coinciding with Indonesia’s Independence Day, the project represents a bold but controversial attempt to secure the nation’s future.
Key facts about Nusantara:
- Location: East Kalimantan, Borneo, about 2,000 km from Jakarta.
- Size: 2,600 km² (twice the size of New York City).
- Budget: Estimated $32–33 billion (€29–30 billion).
- Population target: 1.5 million relocated civil servants by 2045.
- Urban design: 60% dedicated to green spaces, powered by renewable energy, and equipped with cycling and pedestrian pathways.
The city is planned as a “smart” and sustainable metropolis, yet environmental groups express concerns. The construction has already led to the destruction of 14,000 hectares of forest, threatening endangered species like orangutans. Critics also warn of the ecological footprint of relocating millions of people. Moreover, financing remains uncertain, with 80% of the funding expected from private investors, who so far remain cautious.
A global challenge beyond Indonesia
Indonesia’s dilemma is part of a wider global crisis. Several nations face the same threat:
- Tuvalu, in the Pacific, may become the first country entirely uninhabitable due to sea-level rise. Two of its nine atolls are already submerged.
- The Maldives, Sierra Leone, and Mauritania also risk losing their coastal capitals to flooding.
Jakarta’s fate is therefore emblematic of what many coastal cities worldwide could experience in the coming decades — a forced migration driven not by war, but by the ocean itself.
Jakarta’s gradual disappearance highlights the direct consequences of climate change and unsustainable urban practices. Nusantara, born from necessity, may become a symbol of adaptation — or a cautionary tale of human ambition versus ecological limits. What is certain is that Indonesia’s struggle is not unique. From small island nations to sprawling megacities, rising seas are rewriting the map of the 21st century.
