The current situation in the Red Sea, like the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, is having a serious impact on oil transport. A sharp rise in the volume of oil being transported raises questions about potential environmental risks.
In a report published on March 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes a significant increase in the volume of oil transported or stored between January and February. In these two months, Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) placed 19 orders, surpassing all orders booked for the year 2023. This significant increase would represent around 84.7 million barrels (Mb) more, or 1.9 billion barrels of oil. This is the highest level reached since 2017.
The increase in oil orders is a direct result of the conflicts in the Red Sea and in Eastern Europe, between Russia and Ukraine. The cause : the lengthening of shipping distances due to the reconfiguration of flows to avoid conflict zones. Indeed, the usual itinerary runs from the Middle East and the Americas towards Asia. Because of the war, oil tankers were forced to divert their route in order to supply Europe.
In this tense geopolitical context, the Red Sea has become the scene of frenetic oil transport activity, with shipping companies stepping up their operations to meet growing demand and offset the disruption to traditional routes caused by the conflict. This pace of transport is unlikely to slow down. The International Energy Agency predicts a peak in global oil demand by 2030, suggesting that freight rates will continue at a steady pace.
A major threat to marine ecosystems
This unprecedented increase in oil transport is a major concern for maritime experts, who fear an increased risk of pollution. The Red Sea is currently exposed to considerable environmental risks. With intensified shipping activity, the risk of incidents involving oil spills or other toxic pollutants is increasing significantly. Oil tankers, often old and poorly maintained, represent a major threat to the region’s fragile marine ecosystems. Also, evasive navigation practices, such as the extinction of tracking systems (often used in wartime, and therefore, in the vicinity of oil tankers’ navigable zones), increase the danger of collisions and shipwrecks, which can lead to catastrophic spills.
A phantom fleet defying sanctions
The presence of a “phantom Russian fleet” in the Red Sea further increases environmental risks. Following the cascade of Western sanctions against Moscow, notably on its crude oil exports by ship, Russia has had to find a way of transporting oil without alarming radars. A “phantom fleet”, designating commercial vessels not owned by G7 or EU countries, or which do not benefit from P&I insurance (specific to maritime transport, which provides unlimited compensation for damage to third parties) has therefore been set up by Russia. The aim : to continue transporting oil in the Red Sea, whatever the cost may be.
Unfortunately, these ships, often obsolete and operating outside international safety and insurance standards, represent a further threat to the region’s fragile marine ecosystems. They endanger the coasts and marine habitats along the routes they take.
In the shadow of the tumultuous waters of the Red Sea, a crucial tug-of-war is being played out for the future of the global economy and the safety of shipping lanes.
