Middle East: Strait of Hormuz closure crisis

Shipping halted after US strikes on Iran

The Strait of Hormuz closure has triggered immediate disruption across global oil trade after US strikes on Iran this weekend reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Tehran declared the strategic waterway “de facto closed,” halting tanker traffic through the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Around 20 million barrels of crude oil transit daily through this corridor, representing nearly 20% of global consumption.

Although Iran exerts strong military influence in the area, the Strait of Hormuz does not belong to Iran alone. It is a shared international waterway between Iran and Oman, governed by international maritime law, with key shipping lanes running partly through Omani waters.

Several tankers were reportedly hit near the United Arab Emirates and Oman. About sixty French-linked vessels remain blocked inside the Gulf, while major carriers such as CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspended sailings. Others are rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of nautical miles and raising freight costs.

Oil prices surge as risks expand

The 50-kilometer-wide strait is highly vulnerable. Even uncertainty has driven insurance premiums sharply higher. Analysts warn that alternative pipelines cannot offset a potential loss of 8 to 10 million barrels per day. Brent crude, already above $72 before the crisis, could exceed $120 if disruption persists.

OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a 206,000 bpd production increase for April. However, experts stress that logistics and maritime security now outweigh production quotas.

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