The Gulf of Guinea is facing an increase in maritime and geopolitical threats, threatening the political-security and financial balance of the riparian countries.
The Gulf of Guinea, a vast maritime expanse stretching from the West African coast to the South Atlantic islands, has become a hotspot for illicit maritime activities and environmental challenges. Already facing socio-economic and security problems, the region’s neighboring countries are confronted with a worrying increase in maritime threats, such as drug trafficking, piracy, illegal fishing and coastal erosion.
A hub for drug trafficking
Senegal, in particular, has become a hub for cocaine trafficking from Latin America to Europe. Recent seizures of large quantities of cocaine indicate that the country is increasingly being targeted by international cartels. Last June, Senegalese customs officers intercepted two shipments totalling 63kg of cocaine, worth almost 7 billion CFA francs (10.5 million euros). These major seizures, which are becoming more and more frequent, testify the determination of traffickers to use the countries of the Gulf of Guinea as transit platforms.
Insecurity at sea
Piracy remains a major issue in the Gulf. In 2023, the Maritime Information Cooperation & Awareness Center (MICA Center) recorded 31 accidents, including 26 cases of banditry and five cases of piracy in the region. The area is now considered one of the most hostile in the world for seafarers.
Illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing is another serious threat in the Gulf of Guinea. The plundering of fishery resources in African coastal waters by foreign, often unauthorized, fishing vessels threatens the livelihoods of about 5.2 million people working for the benefit of small-scale local fisheries. Representing a huge economic scourge, IUU fishing costs West Africa around 10 billion dollars a year. It also contributes to the degradation of marine ecosystems and the depletion of fish stocks.
The Gulf at the heart of a conflict of interests
China has established a significant economic presence in the Gulf of Guinea through major investments in infrastructure projects, oil exploration and harbor development. Key investments include Nigeria’s oil and gas industry and stakes in strategic harbors such as Lagos, Lekki and Lomé. These investments have accentuated China’s influence in the region, offering it the opportunity to participate in the shaping of local economies and political dynamics. This strategic thrust aligns with the Middle Kingdom’s broader ambitions to secure its energy interests and expand its presence in Africa.
China’s ever-greater economic influence complicates the ability of local governments to regulate fishing activities and enforce maritime laws.
The Gulf region also appealed to Russia. At the crossroads of Europe, Africa and the Middle East, the area is a “gateway” to many of West Africa’s coastal states. The Kremlin, striving to expand its military footprint and economic influence in the region, is taking particularadvantage of the current political and security instability in former G5 Sahel countries to gain ground. The presence of Russian private military companies, such as the Wagner Group and its successor Africa Corps, has played a key role in this expansion. For the Gulf States, this presence represents an additional threat.
Worrying environmental challenges
In addition to criminal and geopolitical threats, the riparian countries are facing worrying environmental challenges. Senegal’s capital, Dakar, as well as other coastal cities such as Conakry and Abidjan, are severely affected by coastal erosion, which causes the sea to advance by an average of 1.8 meters per year. Saint-Louis, in Senegal, is particularly vulnerable, with forecasts predicting the submergence of 80% of its land by 2080.
Today, the Gulf of Guinea stands at a critical crossroads where political, security and environmental issues collide. As a focal point for natural resources as well as the nerve center of ongoing geopolitical issues, the area is a sensitive point that must be protected. The weakening of the region threatens the riparian countries in particular, who will be forced to adopt an integrated, joint approach to meet these challenges. But with the growing economic influence of China and Russia making the situation even more complex, will this be possible without a hitch?
